Progress towards peace in Bosnia shows in every newly stocked store
window, on every traffic filled road in central Bosnia, and in the smiles of
every roller skating child on Sarajevo’s once deadly streets. But it is all
too shaky, a few arrests of alleged war criminals, local quarrels in
Sarajevo and in Mostar, or a raid on an Iranian terrorist training center
can put the Dayton agreements at risk. Can the peace last?
The answer lies in less visible developmThe Federation must give Croats and Muslims a solid institutional
frame work for resolving their once deadly strife. It must also treat the
Serbs who remain on Federation territory fairly. If the conditions for
economic recovery and an open society can be created on half the
territory, there is hope for Bosnia as a whole.
What is the state of the Federation? Can it last?
TWO NEW GOVERNMENTS
Muslims and Croats fought a war that raged from the spring of 1993
until the Federation was created, under American sponsorship, in March
1994. Until January 1996, the Federation which comprised areas
controlled by either the Bosnian Army (ABIH) or the Croat Defense
Council (HVO) was nominally governed by the same people who formed
the central government in Sarajevo. This was an ambiguous and
unsatisfactory arrangement.
In late January, Bosnia fulfilled an essential provision of the Dayton
agreements by confirming in office two new governments: one responsible
for international affairs and monetary policy for Bosnia and Herzegovina
as a whole, and one to govern the internal affairs of the Muslim/Croat
Federation. This realignment is critical to getting the Serbs back into the
central government, while leaving a large measure of autonomy to the
Serb Republic.
The creation of a new, separate Federation government is a major
step. It will acquire authority from two directions: the republic’s
government, dominated by Muslims, will surrender its authority over
domestic affairs, and the “Croat Republic of Herzeg Bosnia” which has in
lact governed the Croat majority portions of the country will turn its
governing authority over to the Federation.
a new Bosnia and Herzegovina went into effect upon signing December
The old Bosnian Republic is disappearing. The Dayton constitution for
This is critical: it is only by allowing the devolution of authority
provided for in this new constitution that Bosnia and Herzegovina can be
kept whole. The international community must recognize this reality and
learn to deal with a decentralized Bosnia.
DISPLACED PEOPLE
The Federation government faces several immediate challenges.ents. War time animosities
persist, even if the guns are silent. Croats, Serbs and Muslims have not
suddenly taken a fancy to each other. Bosnia can survive only if it creates
institutions capable of containing ethnic struggles that once led to war.
No institution is more important to the peace than the Bosnian
Federation, which is supposed to govern the 51 percent of the country
under control of the Muslims and Croats. The Dayton peace agreement
assumes the existence of a solid Federation, which will combine with a
Serb Republic to constitute a new Bosnia and Herzegovina. The
Federation is an essential building block, without which it is difficult to
expect Dayton to succeed over the long term. Displaced Croats and Muslims from within the Federation who want to
return home must be allowed to do so. These number in the hundreds of
thousands, with three Croats for every Muslim. To date, progress in
returns to areas where the returnees belong to a minority has been slow: a
hundred families have returned here, a few dozen there. Both Muslims
and Croats are committed in principle to allow returns. But each side fears
the other will renege and holds back on allowing returns in order to gain
leverage for its own displaced. Quid pro quo must give way to an open
door policy on both sides.
It is often assumed that the Croats are the major obstacle to the return
of displaced people, since the prevailing view among Croats tends to favor
separation rather than integration. In fact, responsibility for blocking
returns is more evenly divided than might be imagined. There are lots of
Muslims who have sectarian thoughts, and many, more who simply see no
way to accommodate returning Croats in towns that are already brimming
with Muslim refugees from the Serb Republic.
At Dayton, it was agreed that immediate returns would be allowed to
four central Bosnian towns. None of the towns complied in the short time
frame stipulated. The Muslim – controlled town of Travnik later met its
goal of allowing the return of 100 Croat families. The Croat controlled
town of Jajce has made real progress towards its goal of 200, despite a
slow start. The Croat controlled town of Stolac has agreed to the return of
100 Muslim families, but extremists there are resisting the necessary
repairs. The Muslim controlled town of Bugojno has seen no Croat
families return under this agreement. Its recalcitrant mayor, who is not a
Federation official, continues to block Croat returns. And the Federation
municipality there has still not been formed.
FEDERATION CANTONS AND MUNICIPALITIES
Return of displaced people would in fact be easier if all the municipal
and cantonal governments of the Federation, which are to be governed
jointly by Croats and Muslims, existed. Instead, Bosnia is still littered with
separate Muslim and Croat administrative structures, which both groups
are agreed in principle must now disappear in favor of Federation
institutions.
had to be redrawn to correspond to the Dayton map of the Federation. The
First, however, the Federation cantons, originally created in 1994
one remaining problem, which concerned four Croat municipalities has been resolved, with the Muslims agreeing to allow them to become a
separate canton. The Croats have dropped their request to incorporate
these municipalities in the “mixed” Neretva Canton, a move that would
have sharply tilted the population balance there.
This solution to the problem of cantonal boundaries should allow
formation of the remaining municipalities (about one quarter of the total)
and cantons (the only real stumbling block remaining is Sarajevo
Canton). The next problem will be money: the Federation cantons and
municipalities need budgets and income if they are to take on the
responsibilities foreseen for them. The Dayton arrangements called for
budgets by March 31, a deadline that was not met. But with help from the
World Bank and IMF it should be possible to have fully functioning
Federation municipalities and cantons up and running by fall.
The most difficult of the local situations is in the southern Bosnian
city of Mostar. The Croat/Muslim war there was especially intense. The
city is charged with symbolism for both sides (as well as for the Serbs.
who have largely left the city). A good resolution in Mostar would open
doors to solutions throughout the Federation,
A year and a half of administration by the European Union, which has
budgeted over 100 million dollars per year for the effort, has been only
partially successful. Humanitarian efforts and restoration of utilities have
gone well and, since December 10, all but military aged men have been
able to circulate freely in the city. But full freedom of movement,
creation of a unified police force, and agreement on the new Federation
charter for the city had been blocked by quarrels over subdivision of the
city into boroughs.
The European Union (EU) city administrator of the city decided how
this problem was to be resolved. Croat rioting resulted. The issue that
provoked this response was the character of the city centre. The Muslims
wanted a large, mixed central zone incorporating a Muslim neighbourhood
that existed prior to the war in the predominantly Croat Western part of
the city. The Croats were prepared to accept a small central zone
Consisting of only public buildings. The EU Administrator’s decision split
have liked and a larger one than the Croats were comfortable with,
the difference, creating a smaller central zone than the Muslims would
Both sides were decision, but the Croats refused. They sought a
change that would shrink obligated to implement the EU Administrator’s the central zone. They succeeded in negotiating this change in Rome in
mid February. This compromise opened the way to elections in Mostar,
which were successfully held on May 31. The Federation municipality
should now be able to take over governing the city, with the EU
administration (which should now be extended past its July 23 mandate)
phasing out its political activities over the next several months.
There are other aspects of the Mostar problem. Croatian police, sent
by Zagreb at Sarajevo’s request to clean up organized crime in the city,
need to fulfill their mission. It would also help if the Muslims were to
allow Croats back to their homes in Central Bosnia: there are large
numbers of Croat displaced people in Mostar whose resentments are a
natural breeding ground for extremism and disorder.
Perhaps the greatest challenge facing the Federation is the unification
of Croat and Muslim armed forces. The HVO was created early in the
war to fight the Serbs, at a time when the Bosnian Army was virtually
non-existent and the Sarajevo government was trying to stay out of the
Serb/Croat war. The HVO later fought against the Bosnian Army for ten
months and remains separate. The two (backed by Croatia’s Army) joined
forces in the successful offensive in Western Bosnia that led last fall to the
Dayton peace talks.
Immediate unification of the HVO and the Bosnian Army is not
possible, but the Dayton agreements foresee a Federation Defense
Ministry, Joint Command and Joint Staff. The U.S Government is
organizing an effort to train and equip the Federation forces, within the
limits imposed by the arms control portions of the peace agreement. This
effort will build up the joint structures required to make the Bosnian Army
and the HVO de facto components of a single Federation armed force.
Two outstanding issues held up passage of the law that will formalize
this approach to Federation defense. The first concerned conscription: the
Croats wanted recruits to be able to choose between the Army and the
short of personnel, and would also lead to nationalist indoctrination
HVO; the Muslims fear that allowing them to do so would leave the Army
young Croats by the HVO. The second concerned who would be
commander in chief of the Army before elections (the issue after elections
is in principle settled by the Dayton constitution, which will have to be
translated into legislation). The Croats wanted it to be the Federation
President (who is a Croat), or the President and Vice President acting jointly; the Muslim want it to be the President of theRepublic (who is of course a
These problems have now been solved. The preference of recruits will
be taken into account, subject to military requirements. Ultimately, the
Minister and Deputy Minister of Defense (a Croat and a Muslim) both
determined to avoid forced recruitment into the “wrong” component will
decide. The commanders- in chief of the Army and the HVO will be
respectively Bosnia and Herzegovina President Alija Izetbegovic and
Federation President Kresimir zubak.
SARAJEVO
The incorporation. of the so called Serb of Sarajevo into the
Federation, as decided at Dayton, proved vexing and provocative. The
public image did not help: scenes of people packing up their belongings
and burning down their homes are not what Dayton was supposed to be
about.
There is the rub. It is likely that the people were packing up someone
else’s belongings and burning down someone else’s house. About 60
percent of the Serb population in the Serb controlled part of Sarajevo and
its outskirts at the end of the war moved there after the war began. The
homes they lived in belong to Muslims and Croats who were forced to
flee. None of the “Serb suburbs” had a Serb majority before the war, and
only one had a Serb plurality.
It never was critical to the peace process that the Serbs who moved to
Sarajevo since the beginning of the war would stay there. Their moving
out en masse was unfortunate, but not the disaster often portrayed in the
press. In fact, this mass exodus was aggressively encouraged by the Serb
Republic leadership, which has used intimidation and violence to chase
Serbs out who wanted to stay. There is some hope that Serbs who had
Homes in Sarajevo before the war will eventually return, if their property
is protected and if the Federation police behave properly.
a three tiered structure: a central district containing the public buildings of
Ongoing negotiations on the question of Sarajevo Canton aim to create
Bosnia and Herzegovina, a city encompassing the main urban area, and a
Canton consisting of the city plus outlying municipalities. This will enable
Contrary to its image, was far from being evenly balanced among the
a better balance among Serb, Croat and Muslim interests in a city that, ethnic groups before the war (the Muslims constituted almost half the
population and the Croats were a small minority).
FEDERATION FORUM
The United States, with strong support from Germany, has long been
the Federation’s principal backer. American and German pressure,
mediation and arbitration have been essential to Federation building.
Agreements between Croats and Muslims negotiated at Dayton, in
Geneva, in Sarajevo and at Petersberg have laid out a route map and
timetable for the Federation. The train is often late, but so far has been
kept on the tracks. Other donors like the Dutch and Swedes, as well as the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, have provided
critical additional momentum.
The World Bank says that some $1,400 million in foreign financing
will be needed in 1997 to continue the international effort to rebuild
Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Donor countries and international agencies will meet in Brussels on
January 9 and 10 to review their 1996 efforts in the region and will hold a
March conference to pledge resources for 1997, Christine Wallich, the
World Bank’s director for Bosnia and Herzegovina, told reporters January
Of the $1,894 million pledged for 1996, projects worth $1,176 million
(including $232 million from the United States) were either under
implementation or fully completed by October: In December 1995, 60
donor countries and organizations pledged $5,100 million over a three or
four year period.
Wallich said that over the last year the results of the reconstruction
effort in this loose union of Serb and Muslim-Croat territories “have been
quite extraordinary.” The unemployment rate has fallen from 90 perce
to between 50 and 60 percent, manufacturing wages have tripled and the
number of people dependent on food aid is down sharply, she said. Basi
services like water, electricity and heating have either been restored or are
in the process of being reconnected in most communities, she added.
Despite these initial achievements, Wallich said that reconstruction
needs remain huge. Industrial production is still only at 10-15 percent
its pre-war level and the social safety net depends almost entirely on donor
support. The $5,100 million in pledged foreign financing will cover only about 25 percent of the damage inflicted by the war, she said. A related
World Bank report also cites insufficient cooperation between entities
within the country, particularly in such sectors as electric power, railways
and telecommunications.
The primary focus of reconstruction to date has been in the Federation
of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where 84 percent of the projects under
implementation are under way. Another 14 percent has been targeted to
the state and the activities of an “inter-entity” nature while the remaining
2 percent of 1996 funds went to Republika Srpska. Wallich said that about
35 percent of the. $5,100 million has been targeted for Srpska once the
region meets conditions under the Dayton Peace Accord.
Wallich said that in 1997 the international community will focus on
four key areas; infrastructure development, refugee return, financial sector
development and institution building.
In the infrastructure area, two sectors that lacked funding in 1996 –
transportation and power will be given greater priority this year, she
said. The major focus will be on repair of existing facilities.
Refugee return will be a new dimension of international efforts,
Wallich continued. The European Union will be taking the lead in
providing housing and water supply to returning refugees, which number
400,000 outside of Bosnia and Herzegovina (380,000 in Germany alone).
The refugee dimension is even larger within the country, where one
million people are living outside of their own homes, she said.
Much of the World Bank’s support, estimated to be about $160
million in 1997, will focus on privatization of state owned enterprises and
reforms in the banking sector. World Bank financing will be on highly
concessional terms, Wallich said.
Wallich said that a large stream of private finance is coming into the
country, most of it invested in small scale services. But she said that large
foreign companies with prior operations remain skittish about returning. In
response, the World Bank is setting up a risk insurance facility that will
Cover up to $3 million for each commercial transaction over three years,
within the Muslim community in Bosnia requires, among other things, an
insight into the complex relationships between three trans-nationalism
UNDERSTANDING the visible manifestations of spiritual changes she said. (Islam, Catholicism and Orthodoxy) and three nationalism’s (Bosnjak,
Croat and Serb). Extreme nationalistic ideology lay at the root of Croat
and Serb attempts to achieve national sovereignty through states which
were to encompass, respectively, all Croats and Serbs. Since Bosnia, lying
between the two states of Croatia and Serbia, is home to parts of both the
Croat and Serb peoples, the concepts of Greater Croatia and Greater
Serbia are feasible only with the destruction of Bosnia. Both of these
greater-state ideologies are trying to utilize religious transnationalisms as
supports.
Seen from within, Bosnia has historically been tied into a unity by the
threads of a spider’s web, whose radii emanate from one and the same
separate lives, their sense of responsibility towards the sacred kept them
sacred centre. Although Muslims, Catholics and Orthodox seemed to live
together in a unity within diversity. Their religious traditions are
subordinated to Him Who is the Lord of all peoples. Different forms of
woven with the
Abraham’s tradition do not mean that there is any difference in the
substance underlying them; the spider’s web,
consciousness of this truth, has protected Bosnia from the persecutors for
centuries.
Bosnjaks responded to the trends arising from the dissolution of
Yugoslavia with a decisive request for the preservation of Bosnia as a
cultural and political entity.
